In his fortnightly exclusive column for CaughtOffside, Jon Smith, one of football’s first-ever agents and a man who was an integral figure in the forming of the Premier League, discusses his support of player strikes, the silence of the FA over the tensions between Hamas and Israel, the long-running Man United takeover saga, clubs being used as vehicles for big money – and more! 

The FA have let themselves down with their silent treatment on Hamas massacre

I was tweeting about this the other day.

I am appalled, absolutely appalled that football has not come out against the actions of Hamas. The clarion call, even now, today, 48 hours before the England game on Friday, and not a word from the Football Association.

There’s also some very siren voices that come out about lots of social issues but not a word on this.

As my wife has just reminded me, everyone was quick to take the knee, and it’s all very well coming out talking about the boat people and everything else but what happened at the weekend was an unholy massacre, the terms of which are becoming evident now.

Football is, in my opinion, disgracefully silent.

It needs its voice because it has a social conscience and social influence. It needs to urgently speak out against these murderous actions.

VAR is a necessary evil in the modern game

Despite the furore that has again erupted around VAR, my initial thought is that it’s needed.

A lot of football fans say it’s not but I’ve seen some awful decisions over the years and I’m a huge referee fan by the way.

Frankly, how can you have, and why would you want, someone in their 30s or 40s trying to keep up with play when the game is being played by super fit teenagers and 20 somethings?

Then those officials are having to make instant decisions when they may be 20 yards away and slightly blindsided.

Decisions which are impactful on people’s lives and, in some cases, on lots of money being earned by a club or national team who are hoping to progress through to the next stage of a tournament.

I think it’s important those decisions have ramifications so I like the idea of VAR.

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What I don’t like are the other relatively new regulations. Handball, for instance, is not when the ball brushes your hand because your body’s turning away from the ball at the time, it’s when you put your hand in the way of the passage of the ball in my opinion.

Offside is to stop people goal hanging but to now have VAR analyse to the most minuscule degree takes away from the essence of the game.

Interruptions should be as short as possible and by the way, there should absolutely be entertainment in the ground so that you’re not just sitting there. Someone scores, everyone’s going mad, oops, maybe not a goal… and it can go on for three or four minutes. That’s a ridiculous amount of time.

So I think there’s a dichotomy here. I like VAR. I think what they did in the World Cup was along the right lines and I think we should use modern technology.

But, all the things I’ve just said, I think they’re relevant to how it should be implemented.

FIFA and UEFA need to stop football clubs being used as vehicles for big money

I think we are in danger of football clubs being used as vehicles for ownership rather than the lifeblood of the supporters – and ownership of a football club is a huge privilege.

As Daniel Levy said he’s only in temporary charge of Tottenham, but in reality, he’s not. It’s his and his fellow shareholders right to do what they want with the club, within reason.

There’s a social responsibility that comes with that too and I’m now getting a little bit queasy about how big money, and I’m talking nation states as well as corporate funds, can use the vehicle of a football club to create whatever entity they want to create. It can be a global icon used to raise money for purposes which perhaps are not of the greatest benefit to supporters.

The governing bodies are the ones here that are technically under threat if the huge nation states like Saudi want to use their money.

I don’t want to say that they are doing so to sports wash because I quite like people investing in football as I think it’s great for the game – but they should be investing in football, not buying football.

I think we are in danger of selling the business of football rather than selling the sport of football and I think we have to be very careful.

If the authorities, FIFA, UEFA, etc. are going to keep control of football rather than let the big money dictate, they’re going to have to put some sort of financial parameters in place, similar to the essence of FFP.

Todd Boehly’s ownership of Chelsea is a different model to Roman Abramovich.

The latter’s ownership was basically funds out of Russia for whatever reason and it just became unacceptable once the invasion of Ukraine took place.

I don’t think you can monitor every owner about everything they do or where all their money comes from, but you can do the best that you can to make sure it’s as clean as possible.

The Premier League now in a way has become an entity which is nearly as big as the sport itself, and so it competes with itself for the ownership of its entities.

That’s an interesting place to be and the regulators are going to have to take a cold, hard look at that in the coming years.

Who could have envisaged this when we all began this adventure in 1992!

Man United takeover will happen but it could be a year away

To be honest here, I’m not inside this deal but I know quite a few of the funds who are close to the the two bidders, and it would appear vaguely intelligent for the Glazers to have looked again at the Gulf and said there’s a bigger game here and we don’t want to sell ourselves short.

They’ve got arguably the biggest entity on planet football and if the Qataris are going to pay £5bn, maybe they’ll pay £10bn. Maybe it’s just a number and they’ll settle on seven.

These deals are notoriously complicated and this is the biggest one of them all.

I’m just of the belief that it’s a very heavy negotiation and it’s ultimately all about the money, obviously, but also about the timing.

I think all eyes are on the Gulf to see what happens over the next 12 months as there could be a new and growing Super League coming out of the Gulf in some shape or form.

If that happens then Man United’s value will rise dramatically, so we may be in a negotiated hold pattern at present which is why Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s bid for smaller ownership and keeping the Glazers in place may be more acceptable than the Qataris saying here’s £5bn, goodbye.

I think the takeover is going to complete in some shape or form it’s just a question of when.

January 2024? I would have said that four or five months ago, but I think what’s happening in Saudi is affecting a lot of people’s mindsets in terms of the top of the game and quantum of value, so it will continue to be an ongoing protracted negotiation.

Player strikes could be the way forward but now is the time for talking

I’m pro Pep on the issue of player strikes.

The authorities are going to look for even more opportunities for matches to be played as we’ve recently seen by the soon-to-be expanded Club World Cup, and there’s going to be more games engineered by what comes out of the Gulf.

If you look at the game now there are already continuous injuries because football is so quick nowadays. Fitness has to be at the highest level and that requires all parts of the body to be highly tuned and in good shape.

Playing so many games without a rest and rushing players back because of the value of having him or her on the field I think is a worry.

Some of them only got three weeks off in the summer and that’s it.

So no, I don’t disagree with Pep. I think as the value of our game goes up, it’s critically important to look after the participants.

I would say most agents will be relatively silent on the issue at the moment but if the union picks it up then they’ll be saying to their clients ‘okay, it’s a watching brief. We care about your well being obviously. So let’s voice support for this.’

They’ll be supportive of what Pep says but there’s a lot more conversations that need to be had before that event actually takes place.

Football must keep looking forward because young coaches are the lifeblood of the modern game

I think the current state of play in the Premier League is fantastic for obvious reasons. The more competition we have, the better.

I love the fact that the young, new coaches and their coaching staff are to the fore and, though I don’t want to say anything negative about the older guard because they did a great job over many, many years, it’s nice to see the game looking forward rather than saying ‘Oh, we’ve got a problem, let’s go back in time.’

The game has moved on tactically, in terms of physical fitness and also with regards to social attitudes in a place of social conscience.

Young coaches, new tactics, the game is vibrant… isn’t it wonderful.

I love Pep Guardiola and I think what he’s done for the game is brilliant. He’s probably the ultimate manager but even he took four years to turn Man City into something.

Arteta at Arsenal has taken about three or four years too and they’re nearly the final article now. They got a little lucky with the goal the other day otherwise it might’ve been two points dropped, but they matched City and they’re physically getting stronger.

I think what Eddie Howe has done at Newcastle too is phenomenal. Go back four weeks, however, and he was losing games. Had he continued to lose games, he wouldn’t have had the same status as he has today.

I remember when Alex Ferguson won the Champions League the first time with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s boot. I think by the end of October the following season United were having a bad run and had it continued he could’ve gone.

Everything’s wonderful as long as it’s for today, because our game thrives on emotion and reaction to emotion.

I just hope that the young coaches are given the time they need to evolve what is becoming a revolution; football at its best and better than it’s ever been.

The post Agent’s column: The FA’s silence has appalled me, VAR is a necessary evil, Man United takeover will happen, I’m with Pep regarding striking players and more appeared first on CaughtOffside.

In his fortnightly exclusive column for CaughtOffside, Jon Smith, one of football’s first-ever agents and a man who was an integral figure in the forming of the Premier League, discusses why player transfers aren’t as straightforward as everyone thinks, why Arsenal need an out and out striker, why Jadon Sancho has no future at Man United, whether clubs need to do more regarding mental health – and more! 

Player transfers aren’t straightforward and are a lot more scientific these days

There are many agents out there, but at the top of the game there’s probably only 50 clients you’ve got as your marketplace. They are the ones that make you most of your money.

There’s a whole bunch of smaller clubs of course, so therefore there’s an abundance of agents, however, the big boys and the more professional agents are the guys who are attuned with the game and the industry, and are much more professional than the outward impression would have you believe.

There are lots of conversations that are always going on, co-relationships between clubs, agents and players, lots of intelligence networks about who’s getting what, who needs what, who is likely to move, who’s injury prone, which clubs are likely to be in positions where they’re going to need certain positions filled, and of course anticipation of moves to be made by rival clubs.

There’s so much information these days to be analysed and it’s not just a question of ‘x club needs a left back so I’ll give them a ring,’ because that doesn’t work too well anymore. A few agents do still work like that though they’re in the lower echelons of the game.

The likes of Brighton and Brentford have been successful by using the analytics that are now around, meaning they’re in a much more insightful position.

Conversations are happening all the time and the only thing that crystallises those conversation is the fact that you can’t physically do deals outside of trading windows and then of course there’s the poker game that takes place running into the end of those semi-annual windows whereas, years ago, we could have these conversations and a deal would be done immediately.

Arsenal need an out and out striker to compete for the big trophies

Ivan Toney’s out there so if you join the dots that’s a move that’s in my head, but Arsenal may not fancy him because there’s history there obviously.

Brentford will probably sell because they’re doing okay without him, he’s only got two years left on his contract, and that means next year it’d be very tempting for him to just hang around and go for free.

Osimhen at Napoli is another, but I don’t know if Napoli would sell him and they’ll want big money.

I think Arsenal need a striker and a full-back and that’s probably it. It would be nice if they’ve got the luxury of spending money to bring in others to compete with with Man City, but Arteta’s squad are pretty much there.

Part of it is mental strength and you get that by just working through the system time and time and time again. Arteta had lots of remoulding to do in his first year, and it took Pep four years to build Man City.

Now, Arteta’s created a great atmosphere at the club. The programme sellers are happy, the hot dog sellers are happy. Everyone’s happy! I think it’s great. He’s done a miraculous job.

I just think the team needs probably a few more months, and not having to worry about losing games in the meantime. Push on and get tougher as each game passes.

Odegaard’s new contract has come at the perfect time too, because he is part of the heartbeat of the club at the moment.

There’s a very simple reason that football players shouldn’t be allowed to bet

It’s a big question with a very simple answer. For me, I don’t think professional players should bet on professional football.

I know the Toney family. They’re lovely people and I feel a bit sorry for him (Ivan Toney), but he has got himself help which is good. I think he’ll be fine.

I just don’t think you can you place bets whilst having access to inside information. Not withstanding, it is a bit of a dichotomy that the industry is to a degree funded partly by the betting industry but nevertheless it is a minefield for any participants who whilst being involved in the sport are betting on the participants.

Bet on the horses, that’s fine. Bet on who’ll win the boat race, fab. Go fill your boots.

As a professional agent, when I was top of my game, I knew everything about every club, and I knew what was going on everywhere. I’d share that with some of my players and we’d spend hours and hours talking about the game.

It wouldn’t be fair for them to then nip down the bookies and lump on. Playing football is a privilege and I don’t think it should be abused by potential insider info.

The game stays much cleaner if players just don’t get involved.

Jadon Sancho doesn’t have a future at Man United… and perhaps anywhere else

It’s very, very difficult when you have a kid earning so much money.

I don’t have a problem with that because I was the one that pioneered players wages to be sizeable. I’d seen some of my heroes when I was younger leaving the game of football and becoming pub owners or milkmen or whatever, so they should be paid very well for entertaining so many across the globe.

However, you need to know how to handle money. It’s always been important because it’s assumed outside of health to be probably the most important part of your life. It dictates the life that you and your family have and the inheritance that you will leave.

As a player, you’re earning a lot of money, you’re doing really well, you’re focusing on your game and you’ve got your health and your regime right. However, in many, many cases, the families are the beneficiary of this money.

I’ve sat in so many meetings with players over the years where the father, the brother or the uncle seemed more concerned about what they’re going to earn and the clubs are not really on top of this.

The players should at least have A* financial advisors or their own accountants who need to sit them down and say ‘you’re now earning £120,000 pound a week, now how are we going to plan to invest this money whilst contingencing for your tax liability?’ The answer is probably not.

So there’s a lot of misspending and a lot of bad attitude because when you’re earning that much money you do acquire a lot of friends and influences around you that perhaps aren’t great.

In some cases it absolutely goes to their heads, and whilst I have no inside information on Jadon Sancho, if the manager feels that he’s crossed that line, then he’s absolutely right to drop him from the squad. To put him in his place.

Social media is there to be used and Sancho is allowed to defend himself, but everything he says and does in that environment has a consequence. I think it’s right for him to defend himself, but he has to be a little bit aware that a good manager and the managerial team around him are going to ring fence the squad in as best a way as they can.

If he can’t be inside that ring fence he’s going to be outside it, and the word is going to go round other clubs very, very quickly. They’ll be thinking ‘do we want to go disturbing our squad as well?’

Look at Brighton. The squad is so together, the management is so together. Paul Barber at the top of the club and everyone else down there, they’re all on the same team, so having a fractured squad because of one player is a real problem.

Let’s go back to one of the biggest exports this country’s ever had; John, Paul, George and Ringo.

The reason The Beatles worked so well other than being immensely talented, was because they were always ‘together.’ Nobody could say a bad word about John without Paul defending him, or George or Ringo.

They were a team but when it all started fragmenting, that’s when it all went wrong.

It’s much harder to keep 36 highly paid professionals together in a single mindset, but that’s why the Arsene Wenger’s of this world do so well, and they’re attributes obviously that Pep Guardiola also has.

Clubs are ok at dealing with mental health issues but they need to do more for Richarlison and others

Society has the same questions as football to ask itself.

I am a huge supporter of mental health and part of my work is with a wellbeing company called PIRKX that offers private wellbeing at sizeably affordable rates. The interesting point that I’m making on that, is that I’d say 50% of the company’s usage is for people wanting mental health support.

We’re in a very rabid world at the moment where the few have a lot and the many don’t, and it’s scary to watch how difficult life can be.

Then there are those individuals – including footballers – where everyone thinks ‘they’ve got the greatest life on the planet.’ Actually they haven’t, because nobody has it all.

Many, many people have mental issues. Not mental problems, but mental issues. It might be making sure that the doors are locked at night four or five times just to make sure that it is actually locked – I’m just taking a very minor example of course.

I also understand that there are some folk that use the mental health card as a cop out to get out of work. ‘Sorry, my mental health isn’t good, I’m not coming in today’ – and how often does that happen on a Friday?!

There are things that affect everyone differently though. In the real world, people have childhood issues that leave a memory and a scar, and which will have an effect on them for all of their days. In most cases people manage it, but it’s there.

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These are amplified when they are on a public stage, so fast forward to being a famous footballer and you have millions of people watching you around the world and maybe you’re not feeling it.

You’re not quite right, you’re having a bad day or something’s hurting in your shoulder and you haven’t quite got it out of your system. Suddenly, you’re in a bad place and you don’t quite know how to deal with it.

I grew up in the era where everyone said ‘oh just get on with it,’ but everything kind of changed with the death of Diana. Suddenly the stiff upper lip country was crying publicly.

No comment from me as to whether that was right or wrong, it just it kind of happened. And that was the moment when everyone thought, ‘yeah, I can share my emotions publicly.’

It actually was okay, wasn’t it?

I genuinely feel that Richarlison will be absolutely fine but let’s give him oxygen to breathe for a little while.

The post Agent’s column: Arsenal need a striker, Sancho has no future at Man United, Richarlison will be fine and more appeared first on CaughtOffside.

In his fortnightly exclusive column for CaughtOffside, Jon Smith, one of football’s first-ever agents and a man who was an integral figure in the forming of the Premier League, discusses Chelsea’s dangerous FFP game, why Mo Salah could leave Liverpool now, how the Saudi influence on football could see them buy a new Super League, Arsenal’s brilliant transfer window and more! 

Arsenal had the best transfer window with Brighton not too far behind

I watched the Arsenal game and I think their buys have been fantastic – although I’m not sure why they bought Kai Havertz. It’s only a personal view but why would you pay £65m for an off the bench player. That’s just my opinion. 

Arsenal are still not yet the finished, confident article. They still don’t like it if you put it up them, if you run at them, if you hustle them, but their ball playing abilities are fantastic. I think they’re going to be there or thereabouts. For me, it’s them or Man City who are going to challenge this year. I think Mikel Arteta has done a remarkable job. The whole club is a smiley place to be!

I also thought Brighton had an absolutely stunning window. To buy Caicedo for £4.5m and sell him a year later for £115m… I had to call Paul Barber (Brighton’s Managing Director) and say to him “oh my god, you know a few years back I was fortunate enough to get an OBE… for what you’ve just done, you should get a Knighthood!” He just laughed. Stunning business. You could say Brighton were playing hardball but that would be buying for £4.5m and selling for £40m, not £115m!

You can’t always plan for transfers

The markets all around the world have seen transfer values rise, but don’t forget that this is an arbitrary valuation. If I’ve got a player sitting at Brighton and I think he’s worth £100m, and everyone else thinks I’m an idiot because he’s worth £60m, I’m not selling him for £60m because in my opinion, he’s worth £100m. If you don’t want to pay my price, so be it.

That’s why the end of the transfer window gets frantic. 

What normally happens in a window is that most clubs, especially the bigger clubs, will plan ahead and start on deals two, three, even six months beforehand, working towards an agreement that everybody knows all parties are happy with, with the move eventually happening in June before everyone goes off for holidays.

There’s a few early deals that move because positions need filling, but after that everyone keeps their cards very close to their chest. Don’t forget, most players are back in training in July – and that’s only the middle of the window. You’ve got pre-season training, then you’ve got games, then you’ve got injuries. Then you’ve got things that aren’t quite working out, for example a couple of clubs might have a new manager….

The later you get in the window, the more urgency is applied to deals, and only then can plans be thrown out of the window. That player you didn’t want to pay £40m for earlier in the window suddenly becomes the viable option.

I’ve been involved in so many situations where the deal should be done but somebody, the buyer or the seller, is playing hardball – and it’s only July 18th. Now, if it was August 28th, you know that somebody’s going to have to make a quick decision.

Saudi window will cause problems for Liverpool as I think Salah will go

With regards to the closure of the transfer window in terms of the times (11pm GMT, 6pm CET for Germany, 7pm CET for Italy), in Europe it’s purely down to administration and actually being on the frontline on deals. It wouldn’t worry me, it just makes it a bit more awkward. It’s the same day, you’ve just got to make sure that if your players are going to Germany that the deals are done five hours earlier. 

It’d be nice to uniform it and have it if all done at 11pm GMT because that’s midnight in Europe, but it’s an administrative thing rather than anything that’s overly football related. However, the disturbance now is having the Saudi league with all that money to throw around. Their window closes on September 7th so they’ve still got some time to get deals done. 

I think Salah will go which is very disturbing for Liverpool. At his age, money has to be the the deciding factor I’m guessing, and it’s a pretty educated guess though I might be wrong. My guess is that he will go because Saudi could write a check for £200m easily. Where else are Liverpool going to get that sort of money and where else is Salah, heading towards the end of his career, going to earn, potentially, £95m a year. 

The Saudis have got £17bn to spend in football. I’ve spoken to a number of political experts who say that regimes like Saudi are socially unacceptable but they want global influence, so politically, it’s a problem for them. They buy that influence, however, through using sports as it touches so many people’s heartbeats. 

Sport becomes very influential because where else could you get so many people talking about it? Think about it. In such a short space of time, they’ve apparently got that £17bn to use exclusively for football. That is probably three days revenue for them – and it makes them look good.

FIFA and UEFA should be very worried about Saudi’s buying a Super League

Are the Saudis going to be able to powerhouse themselves into football? They can do it in boxing, hosting various world championship fights and anything else that they might fancy with the kind of money they have behind them. In football, are they going to be the new instigator of a Super League because once they’ve got their own league going… 

Supporters of a certain age now are unlikely to become Al-Hilal fans, but their kids or their grandkids could, because the Saudis will globalise the game. It will be a long, slow burn because football is tribal. I support Arsenal because my dad did and his dad did, and my children do and probably their children will, so that’s like a tribal following. However, if Al-Hilal are fun, their PR is great, they’ve got great players and they’re selling lots of merchandise around the world, it changes the dynamic. 

If I was UEFA and FIFA I’d be getting a little bit concerned. Let’s say the Saudi league wants to expand itself and wants to entertain a global league every year… they go to Manchester United and say here’s a billion pounds and they do that to the 10 best teams around the world – they’ve bought themselves a Super League because very few people are gonna turn that down. 

What happens when FIFA try and say ‘right, you’re all out of football?’ Look what happened in golf. The PGA threatened everyone, stood up and made lots of noise and then LIV bought them because they could. My final point on this is that Gianna Infantino (FIFA President) has a home in Qatar. He’s also got a lovely home in Switzerland and I’m sure Qatar is a beautiful place to live, but the Middle Eastern powerhouses are the only other people that could challenge a dynamic as we’ve just described.

Chelsea are playing a very dangerous game with FFP

Financial Fair Play was put in place based on your turnover. Clubs can only spend a certain amount and they can only have currently up to £110m of debt, which the directors have to guarantee. 

So it puts a framework around the clubs not being able to just go out and buy the league. UEFA started the process and the EPL and EFL now have their own versions of it. It’s supposed to level the playing field financially but of course, clubs like Man City can potentially acquire assets to put on their balance sheet, be that real estate or footballing assets or whatever. The framework is continually adjusting. 

In fact, looking at Chelsea, they’re getting around this at the moment by amortising their costs. They’re signing Player A because he’s a good player and they’re happy to pay £100m for him. They’re saying, right, Player A, you’re going to be here now for eight years, which means that £100m now is amortised over eight years, as opposed to four/five which is a normal contract. 

Of course, Player A wants to make sure that he’s paid commensurately so that he doesn’t miss out in seven years time, which means Chelsea are having to inflate their wage bill at the same time, and are getting perilously close to those FFP barriers in the process.

If Player A doesn’t turn out to be a good player, and they have to sell him after three years, they’ve either got to swallow a huge loss, because his value will have gone down and no one else will pay his wages, or he has to sit in the reserves and collect £120,000 a week. It’s a dangerous game because although it may deliver success in the short term, if it doesn’t, chickens and roost and all those words come to mind. 

Chelsea used to have a really good system where they developed a lot of young players without shelling out a lot of cash. They brought in a huge amount and then loaned them out all over the world, watching them play and then bringing them back to renegotiate with them if they were pertinently successful. It was great but was stopped because it was thought to be exploitative, and circumvented certain regulations on staff, squad numbers, etc.

The regulations are going to change next year and, in time to come, the ceiling of losses against your turnover will drop. Clubs will argue against it because life has got more expensive, rising inflation etc., but what that means is there’s a lot for the administrators to be thinking about over the next few months and in the next couple of years.

Many players could find themselves needing new agents in the next couple of months

The next set of agents exams in the UK are very close. The 20th of September is going to be quite an interesting day. Not only is it my birthday and the closure of the Saudi transfer window, but it’s also the the second exam date for all these agents. What I said before has now proven to be correct – which is that there’ll be an avalanche of transfer deals (before the summer deadline) because a lot of agents didn’t pass their UEFA Football Intermediary exam the first time. Bear in mind too that with regards to English agents, only 18% of them passed the exam first time round. 

There’s a lot of people out there who technically, when the new regulations come in as they will do in October, won’t be able to practice anymore. If they fail the exam in September again, they can’t take an exam for another year so that puts them out of business for 12 months, which in this business is fairly onerous. 

January and next summer will be really interesting because there’ll be less agents. They will have to join up with the bigger boys (agencies such as CAA) and there will be lots of convoluted partnerships. 

Players will have to change agents if their agent is not allowed to practice. The agent can become an advisor in their system somewhere, but the player will have to sign to another agent, which is why I said there’ll be lots of convoluted deals and partnerships. The only people that I believe will really benefit are the bigger agencies.

What Fabrizio Romano is doing isn’t new; I was doing exactly the same 15 years ago

Fabrizio Romano’s podcast appearance with Gary Lineker, Alan Shearer and Micah Richards has caused some controversy over his comments that players go to him if they want to put it out there that they’re angling for a move. To be perfectly honest, that’s been happening for years. I did the same thing years ago.

I made friends with all the media, especially with The Sun who, at the time, were seriously powerful, and we’d drop potential news in to stir the pot beforehand. My fingerprints wouldn’t appear because I was friendly with all forms of media. Today, using people like Fabrizio and David Ornstein with big social followings to just shout it out there globally, is a potent weapon. 

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Oct 31 2023, 18:25

The Sun was very good and it was read in the UK, but now, if Fabrizio talks about it, the news is available immediately in Spain, Italy, France, Australia, wherever you want it to be. I can phone somebody at 12 o’clock here and by one o’clock my news is out there, all over the world. The way that social works also places the emphasis on certain pieces of information. 

If we were in 2008 or so, transfer gossip was just a story and it took 24 to 48 hours to filter through the system. Now you can colour it with emotion and because it’s on social, people comment on it. Fabrizio and the like are commenting but being informative too. It’s a very potent weapon to have, is being used regularly and it will continue. Clubs use it as well.

The post Agent’s column: Chelsea’s dangerous game, Salah will leave Liverpool in this window, Arsenal’s brilliant strategy, Saudi’s will buy a new Super League and more appeared first on CaughtOffside.

In his fortnightly exclusive column for CaughtOffside, Jon Smith, one of football’s first-ever agents and a man who was an integral figure in the forming of the Premier League, discusses how UEFA and FIFA need to be wary of Middle Eastern influence, how a new Super League could look, why he agrees with Kylian Mbappe’s stance and more! 

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LIV/PGA golf and Boxing are the blueprint for Middle Eastern footballing influence

The fascinating thing is that I’ve been at and I am at the vanguard of some interesting conversations now with some very wealthy individuals and representatives of certain states about looking at sporting acquisitions, as well as some fascinating investors from America. So it’s kind of in my head, and it’s becoming seminal. 

UEFA have got a great product in the Champions League and they’ve attempted to square the circle for themselves in terms of broadcast rights maximisation by creating three or four lesser tournaments, even though they’re all significant. In simple form, that is the European Super League.

I actually don’t think things are going to change a lot in the next three to five years and it’s difficult to push out beyond that. The big point here is in a politically very diverse world where dictatorships seem to be able to control their states, Western politicians, including across Europe and the US, seem to be struggling to assert influence in areas where they would like to have that influence.

So, coming off the political platform for a moment, sport becomes very much an influencing factor because it dominates the thought process of the masses. The biggest one is football, boxing interest is at the top of the sport and I don’t just mean the heavyweights – because there are some very worthy challenges going on in the sport across all the weights, but broadcast and social media are sizeably title led.

You can see that the states that are in the Middle East are beginning to use sports as the influence by buying into and, to a degree, dominating some of those sports, for example like what’s happened with LIV and the PGA.

Will the new Saudi league become sensationally wonderful and will everyone follow it and drop everything else? No, because football predominantly has a tribal following at its core, at its heartbeat. 

I see that DAZN have just invested €500m in the Saudi league so it’s a good start, but unless the conditions and the tribalism begins to grow – in other words, you support Nottingham Forest and Al Hilal – there’ll be no global traction. You and I can collectively laugh at that, but in 20 years time that may be the case. 

At the moment I can’t see it, but I think the Saudi league will have its place because it can pay a lot of money to be at that head table. There are certainly players who are having their heads turned. A lot of players not just in the Premier League, but around Europe, are being ‘controlled’ by their families who have ‘discovered an oil well in their back garden.’ They seem more concerned to influence the player to move to where the big money is, so that they can all have a great retirement.

Football wasn’t the dominant emotional recreation that it is now. It was significant, but not as significant as it is now and part of that, is because of the pandemic. Football became the repository of a lot of our emotions because we couldn’t go out and do anything. Not just us, I’m talking worldwide. English football took a hugely dominant position and credit to the EPL and the EFL for the way that they managed it all during that time. 

Football’s significant shift will see European and American dominance diluted

I think what’s going to happen now is there’s going to be a really significant shift around the top of football, and just below the top as well. I’m meeting some big potential investors from the US who are looking at what what they can grow. Out of pertinently, the Championship and to a lesser extent, League One and League two. The new ownership at Charlton Athletic are significantly wealthy people for example, and I think they see that as a good investment. If they can grow it into the Championship, they’ll times their money by five or six. And if they get beyond that to the promised land of the EPL then you know it’s Christmas every day of the year. 

If you look at the political gatherings at the moment, the Middle East states are buddying up with China, who are also sizeably wealthy and influential and will become even more politically influential in the Pacific basin, and around the world. They’re politically very active in the Caribbean and various other places, and all over Africa, and it’s the political seniors that are making the decisions to buddy up over sport. 

They can go and create a whole new footballing world but that’s going to take time. The one huge caveat to all of this is the supporters, because if you grow up supporting Lille or Bayern Munich, or Newcastle United, you’re going to take some convincing that clubs in China, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and this new Super League is actually what you want. It may be what you want to watch because of the talent, but your heart is still with what is ingrained in you. 

That’s probably going to be the status quo in some shape or form for the next two generations; political influence is now being bought through sporting excellence. Is it dangerous? No, it’s revolutionary. I mean, I’m not madly keen on some of the less democratic states owning the game that I love, but if it’s a partnership between the love and experience that us folk have nurtured in football, and the money to make this game even better than it is both technically and in its presentational format, then I don’t have a major problem with it.

The world is growing in different directions and it’s evolving, as it always has done. And this is just part of that. But I think the significance is all the words that we’ve just said. I think we should be aware of UEFA having to fight to keep its home territory. FIFA has got the world so it’s going to have to do a deal with these people, and I guess there’s some significance, other than possibly it’s a nice place to live, that Infantino has moved to Qatar.

I think the reality of it – not just in football, but in life itself – is the dominance of Europe and America in all its forms has had its best days for the foreseeable future. And that the influence both politically and in sporting circles is going to come out of the Middle East and Asia. I just hope that they respect what they’re buying into and take the values that have been created over 100 odd years and evolve them into something new, shiny and wonderful that people understand and love rather than it being used as political tools of influence.

Mbappe isn’t a circus clown, he’s one of the greatest of all time

Regarding Kylian Mbappe, I was talking to some people from Saudi Arabia at the weekend it was all happening (the bid from Al Hilal) and they said to me, ‘what do you think?’ And I said ‘I think it’s terrible. I think you’re making him a circus clown. You know, he’s not there as a circus act, he’s there as one of the greatest footballers of all time. The fact that you take him on for a year to perform… it’s not how sporting excellence grows. It doesn’t just perform for the person who can pay the most money.’

I think player power has its place. I would say that because I come from a history of looking after players and I think he is a global superstar. I go back to what we were saying before. The thing that worries me is the influence of the uneducated, and I don’t mean uneducated people. I mean people who are not educated in the world of the business of football, who want to push their kids into deals that are better for them than they are for their child’s footballing growth. It’s a money grab.

That’s in all walks of life, not just football, but it’s kind of been tempered by the fact that we’ve gone from ‘would you like to win something,’ ‘would you like to play at Wembley,’ ‘would you like to play for England,’ to ‘here’s 30 million pounds a year, just come and perform.’ The problem is it’s so appealing to bank 30, 40, 50 million pounds a year in a tax friendly environment, in a really, really difficult world where people are struggling to pay heating bills and can’t feed themselves. You want to put yourself as far away from that scenario as possible. 

I’m a huge fan of all forms of media because we couldn’t achieve what we did in sport without sizeable media support, but I do find it a little churlish at times when the media headline is about the money rather than about the game that’s being played. So I think I understand where he’s (Mbappe) coming from, and I also understand that a lot of these players come from very, very poor countries where life was really tough for them and their predecessors. Suddenly they’re being thrown 20, 30 million pounds so why wouldn’t you accept that? 

Football’s delicate balancing act

Somehow, there’s got to be a balance between how do you allow the exciting dynamic of footballing excellence to flourish, rather than worry about what goes into bank accounts every week – and that that’s the dichotomy for the football industry in the next 20 years. 

How do you manage to keep whatever format a Super League may be under UEFA, and under under FIFA in a World Club Championship? How do you make that tribally exciting for real football fans? Or will real football fans ultimately die out over the over the next couple of generations and the ones that are coming through will be in a shiny new world where the virtual world means as much as the real world – and this just becomes part of it? It’s real and virtual football, and finally it’s fantasy football! 

Now, in my world, I like reality, and I’m very happy to push the boundaries as you know. I was there with Rupert Murdoch, David Dein and everyone else when we started the Premier League, and we all saw it as the way forward. I think the game needs to evolve it needs to change, and I welcome the addition of any new monies from any territory around the world. What I don’t want is for that money to buy the soul of the game, which I don’t think it has yet. Whatever we did with the Premier League has been great and it’s the most watched product on the planet. That’s fantastic. It’s where we take it from here and how we keep it as real football rather than fantasy league football.

Wenger absolutely deserves his statue

Arsene Wenger’s my friend and he’s one of of my icons. I was privileged to work with him and he was as wonderful as a human being as he is as a football coach. He should be honoured by Arsenal and he should be honoured by the game. I absolutely believe that there should be a statue of him and nobody should even consider pulling it down! He’s worthy of reverence and a piece of Arsenal footballing history for sure.

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Oct 31 2023, 18:25

Now it all starts again this week in the Premier League and I think there’s going to be a mad scramble in the last two weeks for transfers, there always is. It might be even more mad this time because, as you know, only 18% of the English football agents passed the official exam and they’re going to have to take it again in September. If they fail, that they can’t take it for another year so they’re out the game for 12 months. 

A lot of agents are going to push player deals now – and by the way, the families have to pass that exam as well. On top of that, you’re only allowed to charge 3% for your activity as a player’s agent but can charge more if you act for the club. A lot of people get round that as it was notionally 5% before. 

They’re will be further challenges to the 3% in the coming year for sure, particularly as a restriction of trade. For all that, there’s going to be some interesting situations now – how clubs may have to work around the 3% and also those agents who are no longer agents after September. Watch this space with alacrity.

The post Agent’s column: Middle East using sport for political influence, Football’s significant shift, the ‘new’ Super League, Mbappe’s power play and more appeared first on CaughtOffside.

In his fortnightly exclusive column for CaughtOffside, Jon Smith, one of football’s first-ever agents and a man who was an integral figure in the forming of the Premier League, discusses how the Saudis must establish a decent reputation over a 30-year plan, the brilliant transfer window for Arsenal and Spurs, why TNT Sports have got it wrong, the transfers to look out for this summer and more! 

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Saudi’s must establish a decent reputation, Jordan Henderson’s ambassadorial role and why the Pro League needs a 30-year plan

I’ve been speaking to some people from Saudi Arabia recently. 

I was one of the people involved at the beginning of Premier League and I was also involved in the early days of the MLS in America and the A League in Australia – which is only just beginning to mature now. 

MLS must already be at circa 30 years of evolution, so you see these things don’t come cheaply – though that’s not going to worry the Saudis too much – but also they don’t just materialise either.

My other caveat is look at the Chinese. President Xi made his statement about enjoying football and wanting more top football in China, and the Chinese Super League to represent the best in the world of football but it didn’t quite work out that way. 

I guess part of that was because of their relatively closed society and having all that cash leaving the country all in one go via some very interesting deals, so they clamped down on it.

But I think doing what the Middle Eastern countries are doing is using sports as the political tentacle. I don’t mean that in a bad way particularly but, you know, Saudi have a difficult international reputation and, as such, establishing political influence other than through finance has its barriers. 

Whereas if they’re helping sport, it doesn’t really have that many barriers because sport is very international. I think it’s a very clever move, I think they can afford it, and so now you come to the question of does it work or how can it work? 

Money talks, full stop. Second line on that is money talks, full stop. The third line, I guess, says the same thing, but it also says that you’ve got to have a desire to win. Young men and young women I guess will follow, but you’ve got to have your sporting appetite satiated as well. 

Just going there, kicking a ball in what I’m sure will be a very pleasant environment but not in a competitive environment, will therefore affect your international potential so there are these consequences on a sporting level. 

I think the Saudi Pro League will have a faster route map than some of the other leagues because they’ll have more money to throw at it – but they don’t have the infrastructure around it. The ownership is is very tight and, I’m hesitating to say this, probably uncompetitive at the moment. 

So I think, if there was a 10, 20, 30 year plan, it would allow the league to flourish and bring in some really good players. 

Jordan Henderson is sort of a older citizen of the football playing community but he’s a great ambassador for the sport. I think that’s a really, really good thing to bring him in because he will help to bring the younger lads through as well. 

I know people have mentioned his support of the LGBTQ community being at odds with moving to Saudi, but you have to remember that footballers say and do a lot of things with every good intention and often have to move through more complicated circumstances which challenge their beliefs, but I honestly think that Jordan is genuine.

The challenge currently is if you were a 25-year-old and you sign a four-year contract to go and play in Saudi, you’ve sort of sold your sporting soul because by the time you come back you’ve got to rebuild your reputation. 

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Oct 31 2023, 18:25

You’ve basically gone there for the bank account rather than the cups and winning medals and it’s an interesting dichotomy of views. I think it’s going to take a lot longer because of all the things I’ve said and I think it needs to be planned over a period of years to create a competitive league in an environment that people want to play in, rather than just cashing the cheques. 

The other thing is that the Khashoggi incident has affected a lot of things. I’m led to believe that although it wasn’t on his direction it happened on his watch, so I think he and the Saudi authorities have a lot to prove to the world. 

To prove that, actually, there is a sea change, and the sea change revolves around respect for everyone. Sex, colour, creed, sexual predilection whatever – but again, that’s going to take time. 

You need ambassadors in there. Maybe a Jordan Henderson to articulate that to people and to help lead the way for that Kingdom to join the mainstream. 

It’s a big step but if they want to join us in a new world.… 

Arsenal and Spurs’ brilliant window, and transfer bun fight ahead as agents fail FIFA exams

Arsenal have had a wonderful transfer window, and I’ve been particularly impressed with what they’ve  done. They’re in a great position but the only negative – and it’s not really even a negative – but it’s the anticipation and expectation now. 

Everyone will be expecting Arsenal to win the league or the least challenge Man City for it. 

If they don’t start well, if things don’t quite happen or integrating all those players quickly doesn’t come off, there might be a problem. 

I said to you in a previous conversation that I thought Arsenal’s best year was probably going to be 24/25 and I still stand by that at the moment. I have been known to be wrong though.

Tottenham are quietly going about their business and have brought in a few, and they’re looking at Clement Lenglet at Barcelona. 

It’s early days for everyone though. 

Liverpool have got a bit of work to do, Man United have got a bit of work to do, Man City don’t have that much but they’ve got a bit to do. Bizarrely, I think Chelsea have done well because they’re trying very hard to sort out everything and they’re taking some interesting steps to do so. 

Nobody’s really moving apart from one or two of the bigger transfers and then there’s going to be the normal bun-fight, but it needs one or two deals to move in early August.

In each summer window everyone goes off on holiday, they come back to pre-season training and review their playing staff and then the market starts moving again towards the end of July/beginning of August. 

Everyone starts shuffling the pack a bit and then it starts picking up pace, and I don’t see this summer as any different. 

The only potential issue this year is that only 18% of the agents that took the English exam to become agents under the new FIFA regulations passed it, and if they don’t pass on their next chance to do so on September 20, they’re out of the game for a year. 

So there’ll be a lot of agents looking for deals to bank cheques in case they can’t work for a year or so. Expect a flurry of last minute transfers because of that.

Having women at all levels of the game is brilliant but TNT Sports have taken it too far

If a female manager/coach is good, and she’d have to be to flourish in the men’s game, then I think it’s great that they are being considered for roles that are traditionally male dominated. 

From a marketing standpoint too I think it’s great that women are in all aspects of the game now. I think it speaks volumes. 

I’ve always been a marketing person at heart and that’s what we did with the Football League when we helped change it into the Premier League.

Do you remember a programme that was on ITV in 1989, The Manageress I think it was called starring Cherie Lunghi. We used that for promotional stuff at the time and although that was fictional, the idea that a woman was infiltrating the men’s game was about way back then. It was already out there.

When they started putting women on all the match day events on Sky and BT I thought really, is this just another box ticking exercise, but most of them are really good and they know what they’re talking about. Why wouldn’t they? 

I think it’s worked and the sex barriers are definitely coming down but TNT Sports having an all women presenting team is too much. I know that minorities have to fight but having a completely female crew isn’t balanced. 

Personally I have a problem when it just goes too far – and TNT have done that in my opinion. 

Kalvin Phillips should move, Caicedo to Chelsea will be one to watch and Daniel Levy might need to let Kane leave Tottenham

I’ve been involved in the acquisition by our group of Charlton Athletic, so I kind of know what’s going on down there and there will be a few more people coming into Charlton, but I think that there are some obvious transfers elsewhere still to be done. 

Kalvin Phillips for example. He is at the greatest team on the planet at the moment, but he should move. 

I think Liverpool absolutely have to sign a couple to get over Henderson possibly leaving and Joshua Kimmich is a deal waiting to happen because Tuchel wants him out.

I’m not sure how much of the money that West Ham have sucked in from Arsenal is going to be spent because the Rice deal is being paid over two years. They won’t have it all in one go anyway. 

Leon Goretzka is out there to be done, somebody will get him and it might well be West Ham.

The boy at Southampton, Lavia… he might end up at Arsenal as well but I don’t think there’s any particular ‘new’ news. 

I think the interesting one is going to be Caicedo at Brighton. Can they hold on to him? The Seagulls have turned down an enormous bid from Chelsea and they don’t have to sell him. 

Harry Kane? We used to represent him when he was much younger and when I was very front line active. I like him a lot, Harry’s family are good folk and I’ve also been very public that I’m very supportive of Daniel Levy as well.

This could be an interesting moment for Daniel too. Does he cash in a big asset at a good price or does he leave the asset in situ to challenge for trophies in the new manager’s first year?

It’s a difficult decision as Harry is embedded in the Tottenham team but the difference in value between this year and next year when he will be 30 is going to potentially be sizeable as there won’t be much residual value for the potential purchasers.

And of course, there are some younger guns such as Ivan Toney out there. He’s got great feet and a terrific head on his shoulders, and he might even fill that large gap left by a potential Kane exit.

The post Agent’s column: Arsenal and Spurs’ brilliant window, Levy’s difficult Kane decision, TNT Sports have gone too far and Jordan Henderson’s genuine reason for Saudi move appeared first on CaughtOffside.

In his fortnightly exclusive column for CaughtOffside, Jon Smith, one of football’s first-ever agents and a man who was an integral figure in the forming of the Premier League, discusses how Saudi Arabia and AI will change the footballing landscape, why Sheikh Jassim is likely to be the new owner of Man United, a creative deal for Lionel Messi and why Arsenal’s move for Declan Rice is taken time.

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Saudi player grab is a very clever move – and not anything like the Chinese Super League project

I think the aggressive buying tactics we’re seeing from the Saudi Pro League is a very clever play by a region hitherto regarded as an errant state. They’ve seen what the UAE have done and also the masterplan of the City Group, both financial and influential, and wanted to be a part of that. Suddenly you’ve got a country which was considered a pariah owning golf. Football is an obvious place to target because their message gets through to literally billions of people every weekend, and they’ve got the money to reshape the game. 

There are going to be some real fragmented changes in the football broadcast market soon too. If you speak to the guys who are at Sky Sports at the moment, some of them are a bit concerned that the best days are actually behind them, and if a major state like Qatar really wanted to get behind their broadcast partners at beIN, they could buy up all the television rights from the change in their back pocket. Not to mention fan TV audiences which can regularly get hits of over 100 million a month. 

UEFA are going to want to expand the influence of the Champions League and the various European competitions now. FIFA president, Gianni Infantino, has relocated from his very nice home in Switzerland down to Qatar, which I know is probably a very nice place to be but is it a lifestyle choice or is it the fact that he needs to have huge money behind him to expand? FIFA also has to manufacture their Club World Cup rights into a meaningful tournament and then sell those at a value. 

You can begin to see how that whole broadcast rights area is beginning to move and shake around a bit. It’s not going to be too traditional. The markets are huge, but there’s only so much money that the firms will put behind it. For some years now various rights owners including FIFA and UEFA have looked at the riches of the Premier League broadcast rights and have wanted some of that feast. There is only so many global broadcast dollars to go round.  

If I want to watch everything it costs me £100 a month and that’s quite a lot of money for people these days. So things like IPTV are springing up, which circumvents those costs, and will also contribute to this whole market changing dramatically in the next five years. You can begin to see Saudi are just positioning themselves to be a rights owner, a potential carrier of the product around the world which is going to have Saudi’s name all over it. They’ve also bought themselves huge political influence through this very clever move. 

If you look back at the Chinese Super League it was President Xi who was making a big play for eternal presidency. One of the things he was beginning to talk about was he’s a football fan. This encouraged many participants in the football industry to join the party. That players should all pile in because China had lots of money, and so that’s what happened. It became a bun fest of ‘let’s all play in China’ or ‘let’s get Chinese money out, buying clubs in and around Europe and various other places around the world,’ when actually, the political system is very, very different from Saudi. The political influence Xi was hoping for on the back of the ‘gold rush’ never arrived.

I was involved in a takeover of a Premier League club with the 12th biggest insurance company in China during that period. They’d already put £12m into the UK as a holding deposit and then fell out with whoever the paymasters were that week, that month, that year, at the top of the Chinese system, and they couldn’t get any any more money out so they kind of lost that £12m. 

Unless you were with the supreme power brokers – and you never quite knew who they were from one week to the next – it was a very difficult market. Then you began to see the movement of currency was too much one way and was, I think, just a sort of market reaction. The Chinese Super League was an oil well, where everyone thought ‘let’s go mining,’ whereas Saudi Arabia is a completely different model. It’s an autocratic state, loaded with petro dollars, wanting to buy influence around the world.

I’m not comfortable with PIF funds being controlled by Chelsea’s owners

Clearlake Capital managing funds for the Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) concerns me. We knew that the Saudis were ‘in the back office’ at Clearlake, and I always felt a little queasy that they owned Newcastle. It’s very convoluted with Chelsea. PSG are owned by Qatar and Qatar owns various sporting enterprises around the world as well as various competitions. Abu Dhabi own Man City and a bundle of other clubs around the world now, and they sit in positions of influence around the sporting hierarchy of football.

PIF is owned by the Saudis so it’s the same thing, just a different vehicle. Everyone knows PIF is Saudi Arabia, it’s just their corporate arm and I don’t think it’s a bad thing. I think they’re looking at it from a football point of view. There are many convoluted paths to multi ownership but I think the Clearlake one crosses the line. That’s the one that makes me feel a bit uncomfortable.

AI is the biggest threat to match day attendances in the near future

I was one of the people with Rupert Murdoch, David Dein, Sir Philip Carter et al that actually started the Premier League and I love the fact that it’s become so big, so popular, and it’s such a wonderful investable platform. It’s the best entertainment on the planet, but nations like Saudi and Qatar can financially blow everyone out of the water, so I think we’ve got to be careful.

Careful that somebody can’t just come in and buy it, because at the moment the huge amount of dollars being held in in the Middle East can potentially see them ‘buying football,’ and I think that’s something we should protect against. I think the average football fan will have some animosity towards causes that they think they’re contributing to but don’t support because they don’t quite agree with the ownership’s politics, but football remains tribal. Although if Yevgeny Prigozhin of the Wagner group – for example – bought a football club, a lot of people would feel a bit queasy about supporting it. 

I think as much as that is an emotion, the biggest worry for me is talking about crowd attendance and the potential success of Apple’s AI vision glasses. You can have the real experience of a football match sitting at home and you don’t have to have the crush of the crowds and everything else. It’s a few years off yet, but we are only talking a few years. Don’t get me wrong, some people love being there, love the atmosphere and that’s great, but if you can experience that, without having to sit on a train and pay excessive amounts for beer and hot dogs, you know that’s going to take away a chunk of the audience. That’s a bigger threat for me, than not wanting to support the team because perhaps the politics aren’t what you would agree with. 

I honestly do think that the Premier League and its member clubs are close to negotiating their own broadcast deals. I’ve mentioned to the some people that Sky’s best days are behind them. I love the support that Sky have given the game, I love the broadcast features and they’ve taken it a long, long way, but if I’m sitting there and I’m the Chief Executive of the Premier League, in my head has to be ‘we can do this ourselves, we can own everything.’ Now they’ve actually got the money with the Saudis and everyone else in UAE behind to actually do it themselves, whereas previously, very rich owners would go okay, but if it doesn’t work, my very rich won’t be quite as very rich. Now, if you’ve got a state behind you, you have that financial value that Saudi Arabia et al can bring. It’s likely that it’s going to happen – it is already happening in MLS.

Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami transfer is just the start of some creative deals

Lionel Messi’s transfer to Inter Miami was interesting timing because I went to a memorial service for my dear friend, Alberto Vermi, recently and in attendance was Messi’s business partner, someone in the corporate world who was one of the people behind this transaction. It’s fertile territory where clubs could absolutely look at creating funding opportunities through corporate sponsorship. Don’t forget that they’ve been doing this in MLS for a few years now, so it’s taking that model and expanding it. I think that it’s a model that will be enhanced over the coming years. 

Sheikh Jassim or bust for Man United

I can’t see beyond Sheikh Jassim. I mean, if he really wants Man United, he can have it. I don’t think in reality, the Glazer family really want to be part of Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s bid. Once you’re out, you’re out. You move on. Though I think it’s a really good negotiating tactic. Ratcliffe would quite possibly be a more creative ownership but I just think if it’s about if the deal is about the money as well as the passion for Manchester United, there’s certainly a big capital P with passion that follows that club, I think, ultimately Qatar can have it if they want to. 

It’s a bit of a misnomer that the Glazers want to hang on but let’s be clear too, a deal of that size isn’t ever going to be done and dusted in five minutes. There’s so many moving parts. To be honest, there’s a lot of ground to cover in the United deal. Not only football, there’s real estate to consider. I mean, that ground and the training ground is is a sizeable drain on whoever comes in. You’ve got a schedule of dilapidations on Old Trafford and you’ve got to redesign the training ground.

You’ve you’ve got a lot of ancillary factors around any of these deals, including the personalities who are sizeably difficult in many cases, and quite emotional about it. It’s really not like selling a building unless you’ve owned the building for 100 years, because real estate doesn’t argue back. 

You’ve got a lot of moving parts in a deal like this. I’d be surprised if something didn’t happen during late summer or the early part of autumn. There’s just tidying up the emotional bits now, which will also have substantive financial meaning. In my experience, they’ve probably got another couple of months to go. 

Supporters can’t expect Declan Rice to Arsenal deal to be done quickly

These transactions (eg Declan Rice) do not walk in a straight line. The footballer who’s on £100k a week is probably on a basic of £60k and then there’s added bonuses for either appearances, goals or England caps and so on. Gross all of that up, he plays every game and scores for fun – only then will he get his £100k a week. 

So it’ll be similar with this Rice deal. £100m is a lot of money, even today. I wouldn’t just be writing out the cheque, I’d be wanting to cash flow it. I’d be wanting it over the five years, three years, whatever term I would want, and then David Sullivan would obviously want it on his terms. Then you ask the question is it really £100m or is it £80m? If he plays 30 games, there’s another £20m and so on and so on. Bear in mind every movement in this saga isn’t like you and me arguing over a car. I offer £30k and you want £33k – it’s not quite as simple as that because these are big sums and every movement of that decimal point is 10s of millions of pounds difference. That’s why it takes a little bit of time.

There are two players in this anyway, and if I’m David Sullivan I’m sitting there going well, right, thanks very much. I’ll wait for City and so on. My personal view is he will probably go to Arsenal because of the security of regularly playing first-team football and I think he quite likes being in London. 

Do Arsenal need him? If you look at Arsenal last year they were great. They were fun, but we always knew they were fragile in as much as if you put it up them they didn’t like it. Premier League coaching staff are very clever, some of the best in the world, and they would have picked up on this over time. You can see they began to stymie Arsenal’s play, and Man City in particular pushed them up high with balls over the top – a fairly simple anti-Arsenal play. Now, Arteta will be working on it. Last season was the first year that his team really worked and they were young. 

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When it goes wrong for you and you’re young you’ve still got the energy but you haven’t quite got the confidence. They probably need another two years. This year they’ll be there or thereabouts and I think if they get the players they’re being linked with they could fly – but the club have got to integrate them to make it work. I think this year will be another great year for Arsenal but 24/25 is probably the season that they could perform really well and win something.

The post Agent column: Saudi player grab is a clever move, AI is a huge threat to football, Sheikh Jassim or bust for Man United, Messi, Declan Rice and more appeared first on CaughtOffside.

In his fortnightly exclusive column for CaughtOffside, Jon Smith, one of football’s first-ever agents and a man who was an integral figure in the forming of the Premier League, discusses football’s changing landscape, how the Premier League could help the struggling EFL to survive and why Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal are the story of the season, so far.

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Football is changing…

Multi-club ownership is a really interesting concept and it looks like UEFA are going to give the go-ahead to allow them to happen. I think it would be a serious step back to allow multi-club ownership in the same tournament for obvious reasons. You’d see the interplay between the clubs watered down – just like how the City Group do it. They legally move players between their clubs.

We also have the prospect of a much larger World Cup and if there was anything beautiful about last year’s tournament being held in Qatar, it’s that the games were all played pretty much within walking distance of each other. Now we’re going to have games played countries apart.

Big-money football is undoubtedly thriving though and there’s no end in sight. There’s no bubble because there’s nothing that gives people more pleasure, except maybe sex, than their sporting passion.

The EFL need help…

Moving away from elite-level football and dropping down the leagues a bit, it appears the time for the EFL to receive some financial backing in order to survive is nearly upon us. It has to happen otherwise the pyramid is in danger of collapsing and the help doesn’t look like it’ll be coming from the UK Government because they’ve already said they’re not going to get involved so the Premier League will have to.

The Premier League’s next TV deal is going to be hugely significant because there are only so many broadcasting pounds that are available, look at BT Sport for example, they went heavy on the Champions League and scaled back everything else. I do expect the Premier Leagues’ next deal to be even bigger than their current one though.

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Aston Villa decide 28-year-old who’s on £78k-a-week is up for sale in January

Oct 31 2023, 18:25

So by 2025, we’ll probably have an enhanced Champions League, a bigger World Cup, a new Club World Cup and the Premier League. The fixture list is going to be massive. Having said that, the gap between the leagues, which is so sizeable now, is only going to get bigger.

Mikel Arteta is doing an amazing job at Arsenal…

The most amazing story this season is without a doubt Arsenal. Mikel Arteta has done a remarkable job.

He’s massively overachieving and he’s doing it without superstars. Arteta and his coaching team are doing what they’re doing with young, hungry and vibrant players such as Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka, who are being coached exceptionally well.

As a team, they may not enjoy being pressed and they probably don’t have the most solid defence in the league so they’re still a work in progress but take nothing away from how Arteta has improved them. It really is incredible.

The post Agent column: Multi-club ownership runs risk of diluting transfer market, EFL set for survival funding and why Mikel Arteta is the story of the season appeared first on CaughtOffside.

In his fortnightly exclusive column for CaughtOffside, Jon Smith, one of football’s first-ever agents and a man who was an integral figure in the forming of the Premier League, discusses Manchester City being charged with over 100 breaches of Financial Fair Play and Manchester United’s impending sale.

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The pressure to punish Manchester City will be massive…

The interesting thing is that the Financial Fair Play rules were put in place for the right reasons and then engineered for the benefit largely of the bigger clubs to retain and remain in the status quo. The teams who are really well known across the globe, such as Manchester United, Juventus, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid for example, will have bigger turnovers, so they obviously have bigger budgets to spend relating to the cap on the turnover. So that’s how it was engineered but along came a sovereign wealth fund that said ‘we’d like to join, but we’re building a brand’, so the authorities said ‘well, once you’ve built it, let us know’.

There is no excuse for Manchester City to break the rules. If you’re part of the club, you have a responsibility to obey the rules. But Manchester City have allegedly broken the rules over 100 times and what is going to happen is that they’ll put in place the best possible legal defence and it’ll be deferred for quite some time while the processes take place.

In my opinion, there is no way there can be no action taken unless they’re proven innocent. As it has taken this long to come out, the likelihood is that there are allegedly some serious breaches, otherwise, the FA and Premier League and other regulatory bodies are going to look a bit silly. I also expect UEFA to support the FA because they were the ones who initiated FFP in the first place.

READ MORE: Tottenham Hotspur rival Chelsea for transfer of impressive 23-year-old

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Oct 31 2023, 19:27

Aston Villa decide 28-year-old who’s on £78k-a-week is up for sale in January

Oct 31 2023, 18:25

If Manchester City are found guilty, I think it would be absolutely wrong to take away previously won titles because the fact they won the 2011-12 league with the last kick of the game on the final day, there were still nine months of play that took place in the lead up to that moment. There were thousands of moments that could have changed the course of the season. You can’t go back and legislate for many incidents which may have had an effect.

Moreover, the really interesting thing is that the likes of Henry Winter at the Times almost immediately came out and said Manchester City should have the book thrown at them if they’re found guilty of these FFP breaches, and for someone of his standing within the industry to come out and say that so quickly would indicate the media are likely to garnish a very unsupportive stance on the Citizens should they be found guilty. It also appears the public, via social media, feels the same way, so the pressure to punish the club severely will be huge.

So what happens next is there will be a whole process, but while this happens, I would like the authorities to look at implementing a system that doesn’t just reward historical size, but allows the likes of Newcastle United to play on a level playing field and not punish new money while also not handicapping the Brighton’s of this world so they can match the same spend should they wish, however, that spend probably has to have some sort of cap on it, otherwise a sovereign wealth fund could just blow away every other club. There has got to be a realignment of achievement together with size because as Mrs Smith will tell you, size isn’t everything, it’s what you do with it that matters.

Qatar well placed to takeover Manchester United…

The other big story at the moment is the red half of Manchester, who look like they’re going to be subject to takeover bids from Qatari-based wealth funds.

Everything seems to be pointing toward a group of Qataris, and possibly others coming together, so it softens the impact of another Qatari wealth fund getting involved in Western sport. I don’t know if Sir Jim Ratcliffe will get involved in that but there aren’t many individuals out there (although there are a few hedge funds) who could afford to be involved in the process of buying Manchester United Football Club, so the Glazers’ options are fairly limited. It will be a huge investment for whoever wants it. The price of the club, plus all the other investments that will be needed, such as the renovation of Old Trafford, has the potential to top £7 or £8 billion.

The post Agent column: Man City’s FFP charges and the latest on Man United’s takeover appeared first on CaughtOffside.

In his fortnightly exclusive column for CaughtOffside, Jon Smith, one of football’s first-ever agents and a man who was an integral figure in the forming of the Premier League, discusses how contracts in football are set to change, which player Everton could look to sign following Frank Lampard’s sacking, a surprise candidate to succeed Gareth Southgate, and much more…

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Football facing contract changes…

Todd Boehly has been quite clever by amortizing the cost of players by offering them seven or eight-year deals. Most managers have a mitigation clause in their deals, that may or may not be the case for Graham Potter but when it comes to new signings, Boehly is doing it so he doesn’t breach Financial Fair Play rules.

However, I’m hearing that the authorities are going to clamp down on it and are looking to bring in a rule which means clubs cannot offer players contracts longer than five years. Chelsea will get away with it this season, but they’ll need to re-think their strategy for the future.

One player they are already speaking to is Lyon right-back Malo Gusto. I think he will be a really good signing if they can get it done. He’s young, very quick, and has the potential to be a leading full-back in the future.

Midfielder set for Arsenal reunion next month?

Another player that looks set to leave Ligue 1 is Matteo Guendouzi.

I know Unai Emery at Aston Villa really likes him and with both clubs negotiating his transfer, he’s another player I expect to move before the end of the window, and should that be the case, with the Villians’ set to play Guendouzi’s former club Arsenal next month, that potential transfer could add an additional spice to the game.

Mikel Arteta is the perfect example of why managers need time…

Arsenal need a central midfielder to add to their depth but Mikel Arteta has really got the squad playing for each other.

Arsenal are now a team full of fighters and it’s very reminiscent of the glory days under Arsene Wenger.

READ MORE: Exclusive: Latest on Chelsea transfer links with Fernandez, Caicedo and more – Fabrizio Romano

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Aston Villa decide 28-year-old who’s on £78k-a-week is up for sale in January

Oct 31 2023, 18:25

It just goes to show how patience and faith in a progressive young manager can pay off in the long run.

Steve Cooper to become next England manager?

I don’t mind admitting that not so long ago, I thought Nottingham Forest were nailed on to be relegated, but they’ve turned it around recently. I’m not sure they will go down now.

Everybody knows how many players they’ve bought in, but take nothing away from the manager Steve Cooper. He is doing a fine job and has the team playing some very attractive football at times.

He’s a major outsider at the moment, but if Forest keep improving, I wouldn’t be surprised if Cooper suddenly finds himself a candidate to succeed Gareth Southgate as the next England manager.

Everton could make late approach for Championship defender…

Now that Frank Lampard has been sacked from Everton, the Toffees, who have been interested in Stoke City’s Harry Souttar in the past, could come back into the picture again, but they will need to act quickly because Leicester City are in talks to sign him for about £10m.

He’s a really interesting player and one to watch this window, but given Everton’s well-documented financial problems, their activity will depend on regulatory issues.

Liverpool have lost their midfield engine…

Liverpool will certainly be in the market for at least one new central midfielder. Their problems are obvious for all to see.

Under Jurgen Klopp, Liverpool have always had a midfield capable of driving the whole team forward but at the moment, perhaps due to age, their midfield is seriously lacking.

The hub of the team looks to be firing on two out of three cylinders. Klopp knows that in order to get the Reds back to their best, the club’s owners will need to bring at least one world-class midfielder, and obviously, Jude Bellingham tops their list.

The post Exclusive: Football plotting contract changes, midfielder set for Arsenal reunion, Everton to rival Leicester for defender and more… appeared first on CaughtOffside.

In his first exclusive column for CaughtOffside of the New Year, Jon Smith, one of football’s first-ever agents and a man who was an integral figure in the forming of the Premier League, discusses America and the Middle East’s eagerness to invest in football, Sky Sports’ Premier League rights, and potential January transfers, including Djed Spence leaving Spurs.

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The battle between America and the Middle East for control over football…

Looking around, there is still a swirl of ownership changes. There’s a lot of American money floating around.

Recently, Bournemouth has been sold to an American and that theme runs right the way down the divisions, even to Wrexham, who of course, were purchased by actor Ryan Reynolds, although Disney did help fund that deal, I believe.

Leeds United’s sale to a group of American investors, including some involved with the San Francisco 49ers, is set to go through in the summer, so I expect the Whites to do some outbound summer trading to raise their balance sheet. Dan James, for example, who has moved to Fulham on loan, is one deal that Leeds United are keen to keep going so it looks like he’ll be staying in London. Leeds United want a slimmer squad and a higher balance for when the sale goes through.

Rumours suggest that Watford are also quietly in the market for a buyer, as are Leicester City.

There’s going to be a lot more movement because I can see some interesting patterns forming. The fact Gianni Infantino has now lived in Qatar for six months and considering how successful their World Cup was this winter, I can’t see Qatar not funding expansion into global football. How that may look, I’m not sure, but they could obviously help FIFA with their plans to extend the Club World Cup because that would slightly marginalise Aleksander Ceferin and his plans to expand the Champions League. Beyond that, there’s a swirl of Middle Eastern money, along with American money, that is being lined up to globalise sport and football is at the very top of that list. I think at the very top, fans could see another Super League breakaway attempt, potentially funded by those in the Middle East, as opposed to the previous attempt that was backed by JP Morgan.

There is definitely going to be some big global movements which is one of the reasons why I think American investors will be looking to position themselves at some of the biggest clubs, Man United included. Their potential sale is still in the works. There’s a lot of American interest, but when it comes to valuation – I’d be very surprised if the eventual price didn’t begin with a number five.

Sky Sports’ Premier League rights dilemma…

Either way though, over the next two years, we’re going to see some big changes, and that includes in the broadcasting domain.

MORE: Exclusive: Fabrizio Romano’s Daily Briefing – “perfect winger” for Chelsea, Arsenal eye defender replacement + more

More Stories / Latest News

Leeds have sell-on clause on striker who has scored four goals in four games

Oct 31 2023, 19:33

Mikel Arteta issues worrying injury update on key player

Oct 31 2023, 19:27

Aston Villa decide 28-year-old who’s on £78k-a-week is up for sale in January

Oct 31 2023, 18:25

Sky Sports’ Premier League rights are up at the end of next season, so in a minute, they’re going to be in talks, so if, and it’s a big if, Qatar, through BeIN Sports, wanted to blow Comcast out of the water, they could do without even huffing. So watch this space. There is definitely a lot that is going to happen in football over the next few years.

The MLS’ Nouhou Tolo could be England bound…

In terms of transfers though, especially as it is now January’s window, there are bits and pieces happening throughout. For example, Nouhou Tolo, who is Seattle’s right back in the MLS, was wanted by a lot of clubs prior to the World Cup, including Leeds United. Unfortunately, he didn’t have the best international campaign in Qatar, so he is one to watch this month because he could potentially be a cheap signing.

Axel Tuanzebe to the Championship?

Axel Tuabzebe is another defender worth paying attention to in this window. He’s just returned to Man United from his loan in Italy and he’s on the right path to regaining full fitness. I know he’s back in training and being put through his paces, so it’s just a case of whether or not Erik Ten Hag fancies him for a first-team place, or if he’d prefer to see him go out on loan again.

Of course, the player himself will have to keep proving his fitness, but there are several clubs interested – mostly from the Championship. Watford are one side who are keen though.

The curious case of Djed Spence and why Antonio Conte may leave Spurs…

Sticking with defenders – Djed Spence at Spurs is a situation I find really bizarre. I just cannot work out why Antonio Conte is finding it so hard to speak positively about the lad.

Daniel Levy is a man I have a lot of respect for. I think he’s done a wonderful job at Spurs – commercially and aesthetically. He’s also supported all the side’s managers and now he has Conte talking down his aspirations – if I am being totally honest, I find it quite amazing.

Levy has offered Conte a new contract and he hasn’t signed it so I have a sneaky suspicion that there might be a managerial change there soon.

Going back to Spence though – the biggest cheer inside the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium last weekend came in the 88th minute when he was introduced as a late substitute, so if Conte does remain in his job, I expect Spence to move out on loan before the end of the month.

On-loan Saints attacker set to be recalled…

Lastly, another player who fans could see move is Southampton’s Nathan Tella, who is playing out of his skin while on loan at Burnley. He is a candidate to be recalled by his parent club this month.

The post Exclusive: America and the Middle East’s investment in football, Djed Spence’s Spurs future, Man United defender set for Championship loan and more… appeared first on CaughtOffside.